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In recent years, time series forecasting has become an essential tool for stock market analysts to make informed decisions regarding stock prices. The present research makes use of various exponential smoothing forecasting methods. These include exponential smoothing with multiplicative errors and additive trend (MAN), exponential smoothing with multiplicative errors (MNN), and simple exponential smoothing with additive errors (ANN) for the forecasting of the stock prices of six different companies in the petroleum, electricity, and gas industries that are listed in the IBEX35 index. The database employed for this research contained the IBEX35 index values and stock closing prices from 3 January 2000 to 30 December 2022. The models trained with this data were employed in order to forecast the index value and the closing prices of the stocks under study from 2 January 2023 to 24 March 2023. The results obtained confirmed that although none of the proposed models outperformed the rest for all the companies, it is possible to calculate forecasting models able to predict a 95% confidence interval about real stock closing values and where the index will be in the following three months.
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Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the contentious U.S. 2020 presidential election featured candidates with quite different stances on regulating the oil and gas industry, leaving many to question the longevity of fossil fuel use. However, little research explores the relationship between presidential policies and the oil market. In this paper, extensive research into presidential energy policies and their effects on domestic oil prices and production dating back to 1977 helps us identify whether we can predict the industry's future under Joe Biden's administration. The paper's results suggest the domestic oil industry is more dependent on external foreign events - with presidential policies offering almost negligible effects on prices and production.
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Iraq's oil Industry Is the country's main source of income. Iraq's manufacturing sector has always been heavily dependent on the country's oil exports. Since the end of the Iraq War, Iraq has expanded its output and is currently the region's second-largest producer. For this investigation, the grey model was run using data on the monthly international price of Iraqi oil from October 2020 through September 2022. Researchers evaluated the MAPE and accuracy rate to choose which model to employ for oil price forecasting, and we found that the GM(2,1) model was the best fit for capturing the dynamics of the Iraqi oil market (precision rate = 96%, MAPE = 4%).
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As the industry recovers from the recent downturn in petroleum commodity prices and the economic impacts from coronavirus (COVID-19), governing authorities in most countries are imposing methodological measures to promote the reduction of carbon footprint. This affects every industry including the petroleum sector. Therefore, most investors and stakeholders have increased their focus on Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) policies. During the well construction phase, a transition from a hydraulic to an electric tong is achieved, resulting in carbon footprint reduction. Achieving carbon neutrality or carbon emission reduction while producing hydrocarbons is one of the topmost key performance indicators (KPIs) in the industry. With the implementation of digital technologies in the tubular and casing connection make-up process, a hydraulic tong is substituted with an electric tong of an equivalent specification. The energy consumption for both systems are calculated and compared. Other important KPIs on tracking operational cost are also assessed and the results are then compared to determine the benefits of implementing the upgraded digitalized tong solution. The electric tong digitalized solution, commercially available in the petroleum industry, is a key enabler for carbon emission reduction while running tubulars in/out of the wellbore. This solution is one of the milestones that serve as foundation to advocate carbon reduction. Eventually, this will lead to establishing carbon neutrality during hydrocarbon extraction and production. The results concluded that a digitalized solution eventually reduced personnel on board working in the "red zone," which eventually leads to carbon emission reductions caused by a decrease in fuel consumption. The decrease of 43% in CO2 emission is observed while performing tubular connection process. Moreover, an overall comparison between a legacy system with the digitalized electric system displayed more than 59% reduction in CO2 during the tubular running services. In addition to carbon reduction, this electric power and control solution allows for more precise torque control, leading to enhanced system integrity and increased reliability achieved by cleaner energy. With this digital solution, not only is the safety and well-being of rig personnel enhanced to avoid any recordable incidents, the reduction of carbon emission is also achieved, aligning to the objectives of current ESG regulatory authorities. This paper will provide comprehensive details on the novelty of this technology and solution offered to the industry. © 2022, Offshore Technology Conference. All rights reserved.
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Imports and export have a significant contribution to increasing the effect of economies of scale and industrialization and lead to an increase in foreign exchange earnings. The oil and gas industry is a prime factor of development in the Indian economy. The natural gas and petroleum sector of India contributes one-seventh percent of the South Asian countries. Petroleum products can be considered ranked among the top five contributors of export trade in India. With the spread of COVID-19 at an exponential rate leading to shut down of industries, manufacturing, transportation, and offices, it has widely impacted the global supply chain. This research aims at studying the effect of COVID-19 on the export and import volumes of petroleum products and crude oil in India. Along with that, the research also covers the changes observed in the consumption and production of petroleum products and domestic and international exchange rate of crude oil before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
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The current outbreak and the financial crisis occurred due to Coronavirus (COVID‐19);the global economy is melting like an ice-cream. This current pandemic and the market condition have affected not only the human but also greatly impacted the commodities prices, demand & supply especially into the industry those which believes on the traditional way of working such as oil & gas and other energy sectors. If I will talk about only the oil and Gas or Petroleum industry, then based on the current market information and statistics then the short team impact is nearly 25% to 30% decrease in the petroleum consumptions, but the long-term impact can be even more than 35% to 40%. The CAPEX and OPEX investment for research and development have been slashed like anything. When the world started investing into the other source of energy then it has started forcing oil and gas industry to think out of the box and industry must change rapidly prior to losing a substantial market share because of orthodox thinking in terms of utilizing the available technology or investing in the future technologies. This paper will discuss about the way how to shift the whole industry from man oriented to machine oriented, uses of traditional technologies to the modern technologies and implementation of digitization and automation of running plant as well as upcoming projects starting in the earliest phase e.g., Feasibility study, Pre-Feed, FEED and EPC stage (including Pre-Commissioning/Commissioning) and the operation phase of the projects. Copyright © 2022, International Petroleum Technology Conference.
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Energy prices are generally more volatile than the prices of other commodities. This is because short-term energy demand responds more quickly to the impact of economic growth than to price changes. This paper aims to analyse this phenomenon. Therefore, when an energy shock occurs, an important price change may be necessary to influence the market. Currently such shock has been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has produced the biggest sustained change in demand since World War II. In the medium to long term, energy prices will rise if investment will not be on an upward trend, which seems unlikely given the current environmental protection guidelines adopted by many countries around the world. In our paper we argue that supply and demand shocks and high price volatility are likely to continue to weigh on the energy market and the global economy.
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During the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, the oil industry has been pivotal in influencing all countries' geopolitical, economic, and human development strategies. Until recently, the debate was about peak oil and what would happen after oil finished. However, due to technological advances and hydraulic fracturing, shale oil formations have become economically viable due to the United States' desire to achieve energy security to make a qualitative shift in the oil industry and the geopolitics of oil. Therefore, this paper deals with an economic model that illustrates the impact of oil price fluctuations to the shale oil and gas companies by analyzing the main determinants of continuity of shale oil and gas companies in production if global oil prices decline or rise. In addition, the study will investigate the effects of OPEC+ policy and Covid-19 on the future of shale oil industry. The study will discuss some future scenarios for global energy trends and predict what the shale industry will look like in the future. The study concluded the shale industry faces an internal destructive process (within the industry itself) and external (Renewable energy, OPEC and Covid-19). The stability of oil prices is a critical factor that promotes the shale industry's recovery. However, shale industry is expected to continue with low productivity growth rates and continuing government support for it. © The Author(s) 2022.
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During COVID-19 pandemic many projects were managed remotely facing challenges and gaining benefits out of that new way of work. This paper falls under the Project Management category to address COVID-19 challenges and opportunities faced IT auditors and IT auditees during the remote IT audit. The scope of this paper is to know how IT auditors managed their work, addressing the challenges they faced, and how the oil and gas sector can benefit from conducting virtual IT audit going forward. In addition to that, the paper will cover IT auditees experience with the new audit technique. The methodology this paper will cover is comparing IT audit preparation, outcome, and auditee responses before and during COVID-19 by conducting interviews with IT auditors and IT auditees within ADNOC group. It will also cover IT audit strategies and techniques that have been applied in order to assure having a successful audit during this critical time. This year, IT auditors in ADNOC group of companies are still conducting audits virtually. The outcome of this paper would be used as a guidance to support IT auditors in oil and gas sector by: 1. Sharing challenges and opportunities IT auditors and IT auditees faced. 2. Sharing best practices of virtual IT audit. 3. Sharing lessons learned and provide recommendations on how to avoid addressed challenges. A virtual audit is a new technique that auditors were forced to deal with, because of COVID-19 pandemic, to perform their tasks. Presenting the challenges and opportunities faced especially in IT audits will benefit the petroleum industry to reduce gaps in this area and benefit from the lessons learned. Copyright © 2022, Society of Petroleum Engineers.
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Historically, the petroleum industry has been a significant contributor to global economic growth. The drop in oil and gas demand, coupled with travel restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic caused a drop in global oil market prices. This has resulted in a drop in the output in the global economy. These drop-in output means that there were losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study is to evaluate and investigate the economic effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the oil and gas industry in Ghana. The evaluation was done using economic performance indicators such as GDP and Crude oil prices. In addition to this, a loss function-based algorithm was used to model the projected economic loss during this period. To demonstrate the model, data was collected from a study site and used in the model. The study is useful for decision making on the preparedness for future pandemics, especially in oil dependent countries. © 2022, Society of Petroleum Engineers.
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Perkembangan industri kelapa sawit di Malaysia bermula pada tahun 1917 dengan pembukaan ladang sawit pertama di Tennamaran, Selangor. Seterusnya, pada awal dekad 1960-an, pembukaan ladang sawit meningkat dengan mendadak apabila FELDA membuka tanah rancangan secara besar-besaran selaras dengan dasar kerajaan pada masa tersebut untuk membasmi kemiskinan di kalangan penduduk luar bandar. Pada masa kini, kelapa sawit telah menjadi antara tanaman komoditi yang terpenting Malaysia. Rantaian nilai industri kelapa sawit terbahagi kepada tiga segmen iaitu sektor huluan, pertengahan dan hiliran. Sektor huluan terdiri daripada aktiviti penyediaan anak pokok, penanaman dan penuaian Buah Tandan Segar. Peringkat pertengahan pula adalah pengilangan yang melibatkan pemprosesan dan penapisan BTS daripada ladang atau yang diterima daripada pekebun kecil bagi menghasilkan minyak sawit mentah. Akhirnya, minyak sawit mentah akan diproses selanjutnya di peringkat hiliran bagi tujuan simpanan dan pasaran sama ada domestik atau eksport dan akhirnya sampai ke pengguna yang lazimnya adalah produk makanan. Walaupun pelbagai kejayaan yang dicapai oleh sektor sawit negara sepanjang 100 tahun industri tersebut bertapak di Malaysia, terdapat pelbagai isu dan cabaran yang dihadapi oleh industri sawit negara. Sehubungan itu, kajian ini bertujuan untuk (i) mengenal pasti isu dan cabaran utama sektor huluan, pertengahan dan hiliran kelapa sawit dan (ii) apakah usaha-usaha dan cadangan penambahbaikan yang telah dijalankan bagi mengatasi isu dan cabaran ini. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif untuk menyelidik isu dan cabaran sektor huluan, pertengahan dan hiliran industri kelapa sawit melalui temu bual sebagai instrumen kajian utama dan analisis dokumen sebagai sokongan. Kajian ini mendapati bahawa antara isu utama industri sawit negara adalah kekurangan tenaga buruh, kelestarian alam sekitar perladangan dan pengilangan sawit, persepsi negatif terhadap minyak sawit daripada masyarakat antarabangsa dan halangan perdagangan. Isu dan cabaran ini perlu diatasi dengan berkesan antaranya hubungan diplomatik serta peningkatan kepercayaan konsumer terhadap produk sawit yang memerlukan pendekatan yang strategik.Alternate :The development of the oil palm industry in Malaysia began in 1917 with the establishment of the first oil palm plantation in Tennamaran, Selangor. Subsequently, the establishment of oil palm plantations increased dramatically in the early 1960s when FELDA opened up large-scale plantations in line with the Government's policy to eradicate poverty. Presently, oil palm has become one of Malaysia's most important commodity crops. The value chain of the palm oil industry is divided into three segments, namely upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors. The upstream sector consists of seedling preparation activities, planting, and harvesting of fresh fruits bunches (FFBs). The midstream sector is the manufacturing process that involves the processing and refining of FFB which is harvested from the plantation or collected from smallholders to produce crude palm oil. Eventually, crude palm oil will be further treated in the downstream sector to be stored or marketed either domestically or exported before eventually reaching the consumers. The final product is usually a food product. Albeit the various successes achieved by the palm oil industry within the 100 years of progress in Malaysia, there are various issues and challenges faced by the country's palm oil industry
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Purpose>This study aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the oil palm smallholders' income, which includes both on-farm and off-farm resources.Design/methodology/approach>This study used a simultaneous equations system for arranging the oil palm household economic model.Findings>The results showed that the negative effect of demand disruption (decreasing of household income) is more than supply disruption (production declining). Declining household income due to COVID-19 caused farmer households to have no access to both basic need and other goods.Research limitations/implications>The samples for before-pandemic data differed from the situation during COVID-19 in both the location and the person due to technical constraints in research sites.Originality/value>The main contribution of this study was providing an empirical understanding of how the COVID-19 pandemic influences the economic behavior of the most vulnerable entities in the Indonesian palm oil industry (oil palm smallholder farmers' households). This study would provide baseline information on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of oil palm smallholder's household income.
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Recognizing that the evaluation of the overseas petroleum investment environment is affected by many uncertain factors and that there are problems with current evaluation methods, this paper proposes a mathematical evaluation model of an overseas oil resources investment environment, based on a combination of the weighting and uncertainty measure theory. Combining international investment environment theory with the characteristics of the petroleum industry, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for the overseas petroleum investment environment and the linear uncertainty measure function of each index. Using the subjective weight obtained using an analytic hierarchy process together with the objective weight obtained using the entropy weight method, the optimal weight of each evaluation index was obtained using minimum relative information entropy. A multi-index evaluation matrix of the top 12 oil-producing countries in Africa was calculated. Finally, the credible degree recognition criterion was used to judge the order and level of the oil investment environment. This model provides an effective method for the evaluation of the overseas petroleum investment environment. The results show that Nigeria and Angola have the best investment climate, followed by Algeria, Egypt, and Libya. In general, Africa is an important strategic partner of China and is rich in oil resources. Although Africa’s oil industry is fraught with complex challenges and headwinds, challenges also present opportunities.
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Corporate social responsibility based on competitive supply chain pricing has been considered the most efficient strategy of a business globally. In an MCDM challenge, a competent supply chain pricing considerations solutions supplier considers multiple possibly competing for qualitative and quantitative criteria. This study presented a new extended decision-making and FBWM method based on type-2 fuzzy sets TOPSIS for ranking the corporate social responsibility criteria based on competitive supply chain pricing factors. The aim of the ranking is to learn how a company and its supply chain may accomplish joint-optimization of economic, environmental, and social performance by transparently and strategically integrating sustainability into business operations. To verify the efficacy of the suggested strategy, it is compared to a benchmarking model. IT2F VIKOR is the subject of this benchmarking model. The significance weights of the competitive supply chain pricing selection criterion are determined from BWM for both techniques. The results show that the most probable dimension of social responsibility in knowledge-based businesses in the oil sector, according to the research, is the environmental dimension in social responsibility, which may produce competitive supply chain pricing mechanisms based on profitability. Other findings revealed that the elements of competitive supply chain pricing factors in oil companies regarding social responsibility are ranked as follows: customer, product, and competitive supply chain pricing procedures. As a result, maintaining customer values is a major price element in establishing contacts, based on the company’s strategic connection with the economy and regional and worldwide partners.
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The covid-19 pandemic has had catastrophic effects on the global economy. The olive oil sector, whose producers were already undergoing their own crisis, has also clearly been affected by this situation. Despite Spain's world leadership in olive oil production, the added value that this product can generate has not been maximized. Falling prices and supply saturation are the problems that have been most highlighted and to which covid-19 has added. Faced with such a situation, the digitalization of the olive mill has gone from being a recommendation to an essential factor in avoiding the paralysis of its activity. In this context, the objective of this study is to detect the organizational factors that have been associated with a better adaptation of the organizations to the current complex situation. To this end we have made use of the fuzzy sets Qualitative Comparative Analysis technique which makes it possible to contrast different variables in order to explain a result, overcoming the limitations of more traditional techniques. The results obtained reveal that the cooperative form, the degree of innovation, the training of the top managers and the flexibility and size of the organization are factors that contribute to a better adaptation of the olive mill to the situation caused by covid-19.Alternate :La pandemia de la covid-19 ha tenido unos efectos catastróficos en la economía global. El sector del aceite de oliva también se ha visto claramente afectado por esta situación, cuyos productores ya arrastraban su propia crisis. Pese al liderazgo mundial de España en producción de aceite de oliva, no se ha terminado de maximizar el valor añadido que puede generar este producto. La caída de los precios y la saturación de la oferta son los problemas más señalados, a los que se ha sumado la covid-19. Ante tal situación, la digitalización de la almazara ha pasado de ser una recomendación a un factor imprescindible para evitar la paralización de su actividad. En este contexto, el objetivo de este trabajo consiste en detectar los factores organizacionales que se han asociado a una mejor adaptación de las organizaciones a la compleja situación actual. Para ello, se ha hecho uso de la técnica fuzzy sets Qualitative Comparative Analysis, que permite contrastar distintas variables para explicar un resultado, superando las limitaciones de técnicas más tradicionales. Los resultados obtenidos revelan que la forma cooperativa, el grado de innovación, la formación del máximo responsable, la flexibilidad y el tamaño de la organización son factores que contribuyen a una mejor adaptación de la almazara a la situación provocada por la covid-19.
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In today’s world, the countries that have easy access to energy resources are economically strong, and thus, maintaining a better geopolitical position is important. Petroleum products such as gas and oil are currently the leading energy resources. Due to their excessive worth, the petroleum industries face many risks and security threats. Observing the nature of such problems, it is asserted that the complex bipolar fuzzy information is a better choice for modeling them. Keeping the said problem in mind, this article introduces the novel structure of complex bipolar fuzzy relation (CBFR), which is basically used to find out the relationships between complex bipolar fuzzy sets (CBFSs). Similarly, the types of CBFRs are also defined, which is helpful during the process of analyzing and interpreting the problem. Moreover, some useful results and interesting properties of the proposed structures are deliberated. Further, a new modeling technique based on the proposed structures is initiated, which is used to investigate the security risks to petroleum industries. Furthermore, a detailed comparative analysis proves the advantages and supremacy of CBFRs over other structures. Therefore, the results achieved by the proposed methods are substantially reliable, practical and complete.
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The relevance of this article is due, on the one hand, to the importance of the oil and gas industry in the development of Iraq and, on the other hand, the inability to enhance the existing capacities of the gas industry due to both serious systemic internal causes and external problems. The objective of this article is to study the prospects of the gas industry in conjunction with the oil industry, and develop a strategy for their development based on the forecasting of future scenarios. In the article, the research methods used included a systematic analysis of economic, social and cultural conditions, considering the history of Iraq, including a review of statistical data and a variety of sources. The article proposes a method for choosing the industry development strategy on the basis of an analytical hierarchy process, based on an algorithm of iterative processes using an analysis of hierarchies. To clarify the actors’ policies and strategic goals and to find the optimal solution, repeated iterations of the choice of strategy have been proposed. The strategies were divided into alternative strategies for future scenarios, which were evaluated in actions as able to achieve the goals by determining the consistency ratio and the consistency index. As a result of the study, we can highlight the analysis of the centralized system of oil and gas resources’ management that has developed in Iraq, which has a complicated “top-down” delegation of decisions and responsibility, with decisions made at the political level and resources distributed from above, which precludes individual industries from performing their functions, and also limits the effective implementation of strategic development priorities. The development factors for the gas industry in Iraq were identified and systematized with a rationale for the direction of the industry’s strategic development. Groups of factors were identified: market-affecting determinants of the development of the gas industry, as well as other considerations that may, to a lesser extent, affect the development of Iraq’s gas industry and the oil and gas complex as a whole. The results, assessing the significance of the actors’ goals, can be taken as a basis for development strategies for the oil and gas industry, to improve the contract system of the gas industry in conjunction with the oil industry.
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Many commodity-exporting countries saw their revenues plummet and experienced fiscal deficits during the pandemic. The economic rebound will restore resource exports/revenues and a new round of debate will be initiated on revenues utilization. Countries will decide either to internalize revenues or capitalize them with investments abroad. Our autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models provide evidence of the benefits Norway enjoys since it has not internalized revenues. The currency rate, long-term bond yields, and GDP growth are insulated from prices volatility. Furthermore, the country can absorb currency appreciations/devaluations and long-term credit rate hikes through government expenditure. However, monetary steering is favored in the long term (absorbs yield increases), while in the short run it can allow for speculative activities by credit investors. Countries should not internalize resource revenues to avoid experiencing decreased competitiveness and economic growth and increased credit rates. However, the temptation will be high enough since deficits and support packages cost a lot. This study also includes years of low prices. Thus, our research reveals the extent and limitations of diligent revenue management from a country considered as a role model.
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JoAnna Poblete complicates notions of women's agency and leadership by limning the history of the Fireburn Queens of St. Croix, who led labor revolts against the Danes in 1878;she interpolated their acts of resistance with the range of roles taken by contemporary St. Crucian women-both in protest against the petroleum industry and in its establishment and maintenance to support their families and larger communities. News reports and social media circulated stories about (white) American resistance to these newly arrived "foreigners," especially those from Puerto Rico, but, as was noted repeatedly by symposium participants, thousands of Puerto Ricans had been travelling back and forth between the island and the continental United States for decades, given Puerto Rico's status as a U.S. territory. While some locales have shown great leadership in their attempts to curb the spread of the virus, more of the region has survived by reacting locally rather than globally, using indigenous knowledge (that is, produced in that space) and relying on community-based efforts instead of formal state assistance. Because many Caribbean economies depend heavily on the tourist sector for their survival, the halt of the industry threatens not only the livelihoods but the very lives of so many Caribbean subjects, especially women heads-of-household who already struggle to make ends meet.
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Russia’s four largest petroleum companies, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, account for more than 50% of petroleum production and 70% of the demand in Russia’s drilling market. All these four petroleum companies are profoundly relaying on Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and import of equipment and technologies. FDI have been mostly received from European Union (EU) countries and United States (U.S.) and also these countries have been major providers of equipment and technologies including technologies for offshore development, horizontal, controlled-angle, and directional drilling, hydraulic fracturing, catalysts for oil processing and petrochemicals, and geological and seismic exploration. However, since applying economic sanctions against Russia by EU and U.S. in 2014 due to Crimea annexation and Ukrainian crisis, the situation with FDI and access to technologies has been dramatically changed. Keeping with the analytical separation between economic and non-economic sanctions and using concept of political economy of energy, this paper focuses on economic energy sanctions, and for brevity refer to them as energy sanctions with emphasizes on technology export ban, foreign capital ban, state support of petroleum industry and in addition, because of the crucial role that petroleum industry plays in the Russian economy, the paper discusses the impact of both energy sanctions and COVID-19 pandemic on national economy. © 2021, Econjournals. All rights reserved.